Figure 1: Infected Population over Time: TV and MV Scenarios.
Blue line - TV; Pink line - MV
Comparison of the Two Edge Scenarios
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Comparing TV and MV Scenarios
The previous slides demonstrate the basic behavior of the Trace Vaccination and Mass Vaccination scenarios. We now compare the two strategies more closely. The graphs below were generated by running the model in the BeanShell scripting environment:
The above graph closely replicates an important result from the "Smallpox Attack" article. As you can see, the number of infected individuals in the Trace Vaccination scenario peaks around day 100, in hundreds of thousands of people. On the other hand, the Mass Vaccination curve peaks much earlier, around day 10, and the number of infected people doesn't exceed two thousand. Mass Vaccination contains the infection much faster than Trace Vaccination and results in over two orders of magnitude fewer infections.
The difference between numbers of casualties over time is no less dramatic. By day 20, the two curves start to deviate significantly, and by day 112, the Mass Vaccination scenario casualties have almost stopped increasing, while the Trace Vaccination ones are two orders of magnitude higher, and still growing.